Revisiting the Paul Goldschmidt Trade
It’s been more than a year and a half since Arizona gave up their beloved first baseman. Now, how are things looking for both the Diamondbacks and Cardinals? Is it too soon to declare who the “winner” of the trade is?
I had just finished my classes for the day at Phoenix College when I saw the Instagram post from MLB announcing that America’s First Baseman had been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, and that the Diamondbacks were getting a pitcher, catcher, an infield prospect and a draft pick all in return. I was looking forward to Christmas Break and finally receiving my Associate’s Degree, but seeing that post really hurt in the moment and made me want to forget about that December day. After speculation and rumors, the once unthinkable had happened — Paul Goldschmidt would no longer play in a Diamondbacks uniform.
It hurt for awhile, and even made Diamondbacks fans question the actions of Mike Hazen and the team’s front office. Why not keep Goldy and pay him what he deserves, or atleast let him play out his final year on his contract? The answer is youth, and that baseball is still a business at the end of the day. Goldy was coming off a season in which he slashed .290/.389/.533 — not too shy of what his career average was up to that point. His batting average was slightly lower than his .297 BA from 2016 and 2017, and he last hit over .300 in 2015. RBI’s were down, going from 120 in ’17 to 83 in ’18 (although the whole team had struggled offensively for awhile). It was also his worst year in strikeouts, spiking to 173 — a +26 differential from 2017 (147). He was still a 30+ home run hitter and ended 2018 with 33 long balls — as expected. What does this all mean? He was performing like himself despite it feeling like a “down” year (but none more than 2016, which could be argued as Goldschmidt’s worst year to date after his breakout 2013 season). Due to the financial contraints of Greinke’s contract, as well as the ill-fated Yasmany Tomas contract, an extension did not seem likely despite the free agency departures of Patrick Corbin and AJ Pollock. Goldschmidt was due for a huge payday, and the Diamondbacks could not commit — so they gave in to what value they could get for him and began looking towards the future. It looked like the team was heading towards a complete rebuild, which turned out to not be the case. The Diamondbacks recieved RHP Luke Weaver, C Carson Kelly, infield prospect Andy Young (who made is debut earlier this season), and a Competitive Balance Round B draft slot. It seemed like a decent haul, and has already began to pay dividends here in the desert.
Weaver, who was projected to become a middle-of-the-rotation arm in MLB’s 2016 Prospect Watch, seemed to be the “prize” of the bunch. In him, the Diamondbacks expected a rotation cornerstone for the foreseeable future. Weaver has a six pitch reportoire, relying mostly on his four-seamer (which tops out at 93–94 MPH and has seen increased velocity recently) as well as his changeup (averaging around 83 MPH). These are complemented by a cutter, a curveball, and a rarely-thrown sinker. Weaver has pretty much all but abandoned his slider, last throwing it during the 2016 season (his debut year). Weaver may not be a strikeout machine like Max Scherzer or teammate Robbie Ray, but still owns a decent K/9 average of 9.4 through 2020 — which has also increased after he averaged 8.0 K/9 in 2018. It doesn’t stop there as he is fond of generating groundballs on his changeup or tying-up hitters on his cutter (topping out at 87.5 MPH). Hitters rarely swing at his curveball, which is described by Brooks Baseball as having a 12–6 movement and often resulting in flyballs. Not too shabby, right? Weaver owned an exceptional 2.94 ERA through 64.1 innings of work in 2019 — a season that was cut-short for him after a UCL injury. Tommy John Surgery was luckily avoided, and Weaver returned in late-September to finish the season with two-innings of work. His woes that bothered him in St. Louis seemed to be behind him as he owned a 4.84 career ERA before being traded to Arizona — or so we thought. As of the time of this writing, Weaver owns a 7.77 ERA through 6 starts in 2020 — and not one of them being a quality start. Despite the red flags appearing this year, possibly from any nagging troubles related to his UCL, Weaver looks poised to become a key member of the Diamondbacks starting pitching staff for the near-term future. Should he return to 2019 form, or even show slivers of it, the Diamondbacks will be rewarded greatly as solid pitching becomes harder to come by with so many offensive threats in the league.
Opposite of Weaver is Carson Kelly, the under-the-radar backstop who could be considered the “hidden gem” of the trade. Kelly was drafted by St. Louis in the 2nd Round of the 2012 MLB Draft — and intended to be Yadier Molina’s successor (the “heir apparent” as Greg Ratliff of Viva El Birdos puts it). After Molina signed a 3-year extension in 2017, Kelly’s path to becoming an everyday catcher looked to be blocked (similar to the case of Christian Walker with Baltimore, before he settled in as Goldy’s replacement at first base). The Diamondbacks seized the opportunity, and got rewarded with a potential franchise catcher. Prior to their acquisition of Kelly, many had thought prospect Daulton Varsho to be the Diamondbacks’ catcher of the future (which could still become a thing, unless the team chooses to play Varsho in the outfield rather than behind the plate). Kelly’s talent was evident in the minors, in which he slashed .283/.375/.459 with 10 HR and 41 RBI through 280 plate appearances for the Memphis Redbirds (AAA) in 2017. However, it wasn’t translating well in the majors as Kelly only batted .147 through 131 PA’s for St. Louis between 2016–2018. Much like Weaver, Kelly’s fortunes changed upon arriving to Arizona. After a slow start in 2019, Kelly ended up finishing the season with 18 HR, 47 RBI’s, and a slash line of .245/.348/.478. These are solid numbers for a catcher, who’s offensive performance is often held at a lower standard due to the heavy defensive focus on catching (unless you’re a freak of nature like Gary Sanchez). Was it for real? Kelly was a well-regarded prospect, and it was only a matter of time before it all fell in place for him. However, also similar to Weaver, 2020 has been abysmal as Kelly is only slashing .196/.268/.275 with only 1 dinger and 7 RBI’s through 56 PA’s. Mike Hazen more than likely intended for the two to become batterymates for years to come, but as to whether Kelly is an everyday franchise catcher remains to be proven long-term. Should that be the case, the Diamondbacks will have struck gold yet again. Perhaps it’s just a case of sophomore slump for both of the former Redbirds in their second year with Arizona.
The minor leaguer acquired from St. Louis was infield prospect Andy Young, who is currently ranked by MLB as #17 overall within the Diamondbacks farm system. He was taken in the 37th Round of the 2016 Draft. Young made his MLB debut this year on August 1st against the Dodgers, and hit his first major league home run on August 9th against the Padres. The sample size at the big league level is fairly small, but Young mashed in the minors. Last year, between Jackson (AA) and Reno (AAA), he smacked 29 HR’s with 81 RBI’s while slashing .271/.368/.535 over 540 PA’s and a whopping 31 HBP (sounds like him and Tim Locastro have a lot in common). Young seems to be a ball-magnet as the number of times he’s been plunked has increased every year, with 10 in ’16, to 21 in ’17, and 27 in ’18. Whether or not Young becomes a regular at the major league level will come with time, but he brings infield versatility and power with him. I would hate for him to become another Ildemaro Vargas-type player in only ever finding himself transferred back and forth between Arizona and Reno — and eventually being lost as a result of being out of options. So far, his minor league track record shows too much promise for that to be guaranteed.
Finally, the last piece of the Diamondbacks’ trade return. The #75 overall pick in last year’s draft was used on Dominic Fletcher, the younger brother of Angels infielder David Fletcher. Dominic is a defense-first outfielder and is currently ranked by MLB as #23 overall in the Diamondbacks system. He is projected to become an MLB-average hitter who can grow into his power, but will ultimately have defense as his best tool. He slashed .318/.389/.463 with 5 HR’s and 14 two-baggers last year with the Kane County Cougars (A). So far, so good — maybe?
Simply put, Arizona has gotten early-return value from their end of the trade — but what about in St. Louis? The Cardinals traded for what was supposed to be a franchise-changing slugger and perennial MVP candidate. Before he even played his first regular season game with his new club, Goldy agreed to a five-year/$130 million extension. He raked during his tenure with Arizona, and St. Louis was looking for that same production. They say hitters settle into their power by their 30’s, and Goldy has done just that as 2019 was his fifth year raking 30+ home runs (34) — just as advertised. However, Goldy slashed .260/.346/.476 — his lowest slash line since his debut season in 2011. He also wasn’t nearly aggressive on the bases, with only 3 SB’s last year and has yet to make any this season. Gradually, Goldschmidt’s tendency to swipe bags has declined ever since he set a career high of 32 in 2016 — which was 9th overall in the league just behind former teammate Jean Segura (who was also tied with Trea Turner for 33). Despite no longer being the on-base threat that he once was, Goldy has seen a small resurgence this year in how he drives the ball with authority. Last year, his OPS was .821 — the lowest it’s ever been since his rookie season (.808 in 2011). The home runs were there, but what about the balls finding the gap? Goldschmidt isn’t Tony Two Bags, but seemed almost guaranteed to give any club 30+ doubles over the course of regular season. 2019 was a his lowest, with 25 two-baggers, since 2011 (when he hit 9 through 177 PA’s). Previously, Goldschmidt had put up 30+ doubles every year between 2012 and 2018 — with 39 through 479 PA’s in 2014 (a year shortened by injury after suffering a broken left hand). However, the good news is that Goldy’s OPS is 1.068 through 73 PA’s in 2020. A small sample size compared to a non-pandemic shortened season — but a positive sign nonetheless.
Perhaps the biggest factor in determining Goldschmidt’s value to the Cardinals lies in one metric that many deem to be controversial and sometimes inaccurate — Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Whether or not one sees this metric as legitimate, there is no doubt that Goldschmidt is an impact player on any club — no matter how stacked the roster may be. Goldschmidt’s WAR value dipped heavily in 2019, only putting up 2.4 (far less than his 2018 WAR of 6.2). The Diamondbacks’ eventual replacement for Goldy, Christian Walker, had a higher WAR value of 3.0 — and this was a guy they had claimed off waivers only a few seasons prior (I’ll talk more about that another time). In other words, Goldschmidt wasn’t quite the impact player St. Louis expected him to be offensively. Defensively, he came exactly as advertised with a fielding percentage of .993 (in which his career average is .996). He was also a Gold Glove finalist, as was Christian Walker.
What does all of this mean? Player value will always be an opinion-filled topic among fans, even though the numbers are there to solidify claims. 2019 was simply a down year for the former Diamondback, and 2020 has seen some improvement. It’s easy to look at the return Arizona got for their beloved first baseman, and say that they “won” the trade based upon performances so far. Only the long-term result will be the defining factor as whether there’s even a winner at all. What if St. Louis wins the Fall Classic within the next 5 years and/or Goldschmidt finally wins the NL MVP title? What if Luke Weaver becomes the third pitcher to win a Cy Young with Arizona? There are many factors that play into these debates as to who will benefit more from higher profile trades — but it is simply too soon to tell for this one.
